Friday, October 9, 2009

impulse buys

Sometimes it’s scary to think about how psychology can help various companies sell more of their product.

Just the other day I was walking in a computer hardware store and there was candy  near the register. Almost every place in the world that one can shop at has candy and tabloids and magazines near the register. The idea is that these things cost so little, and are so near the place where payment is due, that its easy to spring for them and then pay for them before finding out, under calmer circumstances, that the twix bar you just bought wasn’t worth the 1.25 you just paid for it (and for tabloids, well, I just have no idea how they could ever be worth their price).

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Shopping

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Thomas Sowell on Affordable Health Care

Thomas Sowell makes an excellent point in his Random Thoughts column today:

After political crusades for “affordable housing” ended up ruining the housing market and much of the economy with it, many of the same politicians are now carrying on a crusade for “affordable health care.” But what you can afford has absolutely nothing to do with the cost of producing anything. Refusing to pay those costs means that you are just not going to continue getting the same quantity and quality– regardless of what any politician says or how well he says it.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Why are we wasting money on Green Jobs?

We face massive unemployment and the best thing government could come up with is “Green Jobs” to stimulate the economy?

If they were any good, they wouldn’t need the help from Uncle Sam.

Our government has begun to push green jobs as cure-all for unemployment and the climate crisis. In reality they do nothing more than take resources from the more productive sectors of the economy, sectors that could actually create REAL jobs.

McClatchyDC.com: Commentary: Green job subsidies will destroy far more jobs than they create

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/commentary/story/76357.html

Ghetto Finance Mon 10/05/09: We must bail this system out

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy/05simmons.html?_r=1&hp

A disproportionate number of the companies that were acquired during that frenzy are now struggling with the enormous debts. More than half the roughly 220 companies that have defaulted on their debt in some form this year were either owned at one time or are still controlled by private equity firms, according to analysts at Standard & Poor’s.

Me:  This is institutionalized looting, and make no mistake, by bailing the banks out we, as a society, have sanctioned this behavior and allowed it to continue.

Shitty.

Friday, October 2, 2009

It's the Thought That Counts

This is a CLASSIC from Milton and Rose Friedmans’ Free to Choose that should be remembered when thinking about policy at all levels, from government programs to holiday gift giving.

Today all of us are paying out of one pocket to put money-or something money could buy-in the other.

A simple classification of spending shows why that process leads to undesirable results.  When you spend, you may spend your own money or someone else’s; and you may spend for the benefit of yourself or someone else. Combining these two pairs of alternatives gives four possibilities summarized in the following simple table:

[Had to modify the look of the table for the blog]

On Whom Spent:

Whose Money ¦You ¦Someone Else

Yours                               I                          II

Someone Else’s           III                       IV

Category I in the table refers to your spending your own money on yourself.  You shop in a supermarket, for example.  You clearly have a strong incentive both to economize and to get as much value as you can for each dollar you do spend.

Category II refers to your spending your own money on someone else.  You shop for Christmas or birthday presents.  You have the same incentive to economize as in Category I but not the same incentive to get full value for your money, at least as judged by the tastes of the recipient.  You will, of course, want to get something the recipient will like-provided that it also makes the right impression and does not take too much time and effort. (If indeed, your main objective were to enable the recipient to get as much value as possible per dollar, you would give him cash, converting your Category II spending to Category I spending by him.)

Category III refers to your spending someone else’s money on yourself-lunching on an expense account, for instance. You have no strong incentive to keep down the cost of the lunch, but you do have a strong incentive to get your money’s worth.

Category IV refers to your spending someone else’s money on still another person.  You are paying for someone else’s lunch out of an expense account.  You have little incentive either to economize or to try to get your the guest the lunch that he will value most highly.  However, if you are having lunch with him, so that the lunch is a mixture of Category III and Category IV, you do have a strong incentive to satisfy your own tastes at the sacrifice of his, if necessary.

All welfare programs fall into either Category III–for example, Social Security which involves cash payments that the recipient is free to spend as he may wish; or Category IV–for example, public housing; except that Category IV programs share one feature of Category III, namely, that the bureaucrats administering the program partake of the lunch; and all Category III programs have bureaucrats among their recipients.

In our opinion these characteristics of welfare spending are the main source of their defects.

This has touches so much, but we rarely discuss it.  This is a root cause to many problems.  We act as if these different incentives across the four categories of spending do not exist or that we can somehow fix it because its driven by evil things like greed, not realizing that it’s not evil.  It just the way things are.  I simply can’t make as a good of a decision as you, consistently, about what you value.

Consider the profit-motive, which gets bandied by the Right as why capitalism works and the Left as the source of all things evil.  The word profit is a hot button.  I think the profit-motive is not named correctly.

Perhaps we should call it the Category I motive or ownership motive.  That’s really what it is.  When we have to directly live with the consequences of our decisions based, we own that decision.  That’s what causes us to take some care in making sure we economize, but get the value for our money.  That’s why Category I activity is typically judged on the true merits of the decision.  For example,  I won’t continue to give money to a poorly run restaurant, I’ll seek better value at a competitor.

Contrast that to the Category IV spending.  We don’t necessarily have to directly live with the consequences of that spending, so we don’t own that decision as much.  That’s why Category IV spending is largely judged on the intentions of that spending, not the true outcome (”It’s the thought that counts!).

Unemployment at 9.8%

Now, if you know anything about recessions, you know the last thing to recover is jobs.  Here’s a very simplified time-line of a recession:

  • Capital is lost
  • Companies lose operational budget
  • Costs are cut
  • Which usually means layoffs
  • Purchasing declines
  • Manufacturing jobs are lost
  • The market stabilizes
  • Companies experience capital growth
  • Jobs increase
  • Purchasing increases
  • Manufacturing jobs increase

I also don’t fault Presidents that much over economic news.  They can only raise taxes or cut taxes, which ultimately has an effect on the economy.  The exception was TARP, which was supposed to rescue a banking industry that took a bat to the knees.

So I’d be more than willing to let Obama off the hook here, had he not been sending Biden out to gloat about how wonderful the stimulus has been working! But, the morons in the Obama administration seem to be pushing for clear skies in the middle of a hurricane, so they deserve to be punished on this issue.

In addition, the Stimulus Package (Porkulus) was supossed to save millions of jobs with the $700 billion doled out.  Did it?  So far, the indicators say no.  Where did this money go?  Nobody seems to know, but Biden thinks it’s going to create jobs merely by mentioning Stimulus.

As an aside, if you have 7 million unemployed, you could take the $700 billion and just give it to those people in $100,000 chunks.  That’s two times my current salary!

But Stimulus hasn’t been effective at all because it had nothing to do with steps 6 or 7.  The market hadn’t stabilized, and there hadn’t been any capital growth. In fact, the stimulus will end up being absorbed by bureaucracy– hardly and effective use of money.  Since it’s not stimulating any capital growth, it can’t stimulate the overall economy, which is why most of it is a waste.

But I’m sure the Democratic special interests enjoyed the influx of taxpayer money.